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Abstract The diurnal cycle of precipitation plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's water cycle, energy balance, and regional climate patterns. However, the diurnal precipitation across mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) and the factors influencing its spatial variations are not fully understood. In this study, we investigated diurnal precipitation patterns in summertime (June–August) from 2002 to 2005 over MSEA using ground‐based observations, satellite products, the global ERA5 reanalysis, and high‐resolution simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 9‐ and 3‐km grid spacing forced by ERA5 hourly data on ∼0.25° grids. Various observation‐based data sets including GHCN‐Daily, Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), Asian Precipitation ‐ Highly‐Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), and Integrated Multi‐satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) were used. In evaluating daily precipitation over MSEA, MSWEP, and APHRODITE data sets show similar patterns in precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity, while IMERG tends to produce higher amounts but with less frequency. ERA5 overestimates light precipitation compared to the other data sets. The WRF simulations generally produce heavier but less frequent light precipitation, with the 3‐km simulation producing less intense precipitation than the 9‐km simulation. A k‐means classification of IMERG data revealed five distinct spatial regimes with varying diurnal precipitation cycles. The WRF simulations closely match these regimes, capturing key diurnal cycles missed by ERA5 over mountainous regions and coastlines. Additionally, convective activities and near‐surface winds influence these cycles, with WRF simulations better representing coastal and mountain precipitation patterns than ERA5. High‐resolution WRF simulations, especially the 3‐km simulation, capture diurnal precipitation more accurately than ERA5, highlighting the importance of employing convection‐permitting models to simulate precipitation diurnal cycles over complex terrain. 

Abstract The Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP) aims to improve our understanding of extreme rainfall processes in the East Asian summer monsoon. A convection-permitting ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system (the PSU WRF-EnKF system) was run in real time in the summers of 2020–21 in advance of the 2022 field campaign, assimilating all-sky infrared (IR) radiances from the geostationary Himawari-8 and GOES-16 satellites, and providing 48-h ensemble forecasts every day for weather briefings and discussions. This is the first time that all-sky IR data assimilation has been performed in a real-time forecast system at a convection-permitting resolution for several seasons. Compared with retrospective forecasts that exclude all-sky IR radiances, rainfall predictions are statistically significantly improved out to at least 4–6 h for the real-time forecasts, which is comparable to the time scale of improvements gained from assimilating observations from the dense ground-based Doppler weather radars. The assimilation of all-sky IR radiances also reduced the forecast errors of large-scale environments and helped to maintain a more reasonable ensemble spread compared with the counterpart experiments that did not assimilate all-sky IR radiances. The results indicate strong potential for improving routine short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts using these high-spatiotemporal-resolution satellite observations in the future. Significance Statement During the summers of 2020/21, the PSU WRF-EnKF data assimilation and forecast system was run in real time in advance of the 2022 Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP), assimilating all-sky (clear-sky and cloudy) infrared radiances from geostationary satellites into a numerical weather prediction model and providing ensemble forecasts. This study presents the first-of-its-kind systematic evaluation of the impacts of assimilating all-sky infrared radiances on short-term qualitative precipitation forecasts using multiyear, multiregion, real-time ensemble forecasts. Results suggest that rainfall forecasts are improved out to at least 4–6 h with the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiances, comparable to the influence of assimilating radar observations, with benefits in forecasting large-scale environments and representing atmospheric uncertainties as well. 

Abstract Over the course of his career, Fuqing Zhang drew vital new insights into the dynamics of meteorologically significant mesoscale gravity waves (MGWs), including their generation by unbalanced jet streaks, their interaction with fronts and organized precipitation, and their importance in midlatitude weather and predictability. Zhang was the first to deeply examine “spontaneous balance adjustment”—the process by which MGWs are continuously emitted as baroclinic growth drives the upper-level flow out of balance. Through his pioneering numerical model investigation of the large-amplitude MGW event of 4 January 1994, he additionally demonstrated the critical role of MGW–moist convection interaction in wave amplification. Zhang’s curiosity-turned-passion in atmospheric science covered a vast range of topics and led to the birth of new branches of research in mesoscale meteorology and numerical weather prediction. Yet, it was his earliest studies into midlatitude MGWs and their significant impacts on hazardous weather that first inspired him. Such MGWs serve as the focus of this review, wherein we seek to pay tribute to his groundbreaking contributions, review our current understanding, and highlight critical open science issues. Chief among such issues is the nature of MGW amplification through feedback with moist convection, which continues to elude a complete understanding. The pressing nature of this subject is underscored by the continued failure of operational numerical forecast models to adequately predict most large-amplitude MGW events. Further research into such issues therefore presents a valuable opportunity to improve the understanding and forecasting of this high-impact weather phenomenon, and in turn, to preserve the spirit of Zhang’s dedication to this subject. 

Long-lived, zonally propagating diurnal rainfall disturbances are a highly pronounced and common feature in the Maritime Continent (MC). A recent study argues that these disturbances can be explained as diurnally phase-locked gravity waves. Here we explore the origins of these waves through regional cloud-permitting numerical model experiments. The gravity waves are reproduced and isolated in the model framework through the combined use of realistic geography and diurnally cyclic lateral boundary conditions representative of both characteristic easterly and westerly background zonal flow regimes. These flow regimes are characteristic of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) suppressed and active phase in the MC, respectively. Tests are conducted wherein Borneo, Sumatra, or both islands and/or their orography are removed. These tests imply that the diurnal gravity waves are excited and maintained directly by latent heating from the vigorous mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that form nocturnally in both Borneo and Sumatra. Removing orography has only a secondary impact on both the MCSs and the gravity waves, implying that it is not critical to these waves. We therefore hypothesize that diurnal gravity waves are fundamentally driven by mesoscale organized deep convection, and are only sensitive to orography to the measure that the convection is affected by the orography and its mesoscale flows. Factor separation further reveals that the nonlinear interaction of synchronized diurnal cycles in Sumatra and Borneo slightly amplifies this gravity wave mode compared to if either island existed in isolation. This nonlinear feedback appears most prominently at longitudes directly between the two islands. 

Abstract An energy budget combining atmospheric moist static energy (MSE) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) is used to examine the processes impacting day-to-day convective variability in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Feedbacks arising from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, surface fluxes, and radiation drive the cyclical amplification and decay of convection around suppressed and enhanced convective equilibrium states, referred to as shallow and deep convective discharge–recharge (D–R) cycles, respectively. The shallow convective D–R cycle is characterized by alternating enhancements of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus, often in the presence of extensive cirrus clouds. The deep convective D–R cycle is characterized by sequential increases in shallow cumulus, congestus, narrow deep precipitation, wide deep precipitation, a mix of detached anvil and altostratus and altocumulus, and once again shallow cumulus cloud types. Transitions from the shallow to deep D–R cycle are favored by a positive “column process” feedback, while discharge of convective instability and OHC by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contributes to transitions from the deep to shallow D–R cycle. Variability in the processes impacting MSE is comparable in magnitude to, but considerably more balanced than, variability in the processes impacting OHC. Variations in the quantity of atmosphere–ocean coupled static energy (MSE + OHC) result primarily from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, but are mainly realized as changes in OHC. MCSs are unique in their ability to rapidly discharge both lower-tropospheric convective instability and OHC. 

Abstract. Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon. 

Abstract The hypothesis that the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC) enhance total rainfall and time‐mean upward motion is tested using a convection‐permitting regional model. Sensitivity experiments with the islands removed greatly diminish both rainfall and upward motion, supporting the hypothesis. We examine the individual factors in this enhancement, isolating the impacts of the diurnal cycle from those of basic‐state (i.e., constant) forcing of orography and the land surface. We find that the basic‐state forcing by land is the only factor that substantially enhances total island rainfall, specifically through the enhancement of mean surface heat fluxes. The diurnal cycle and orographic forcing, however, substantially enhance rainfall in the seas surrounding the islands. Moreover, the diurnal cycle is found to be essential for promoting mesoscale circulations on the spatial scales of the islands, which are critical to both the upscale growth of deep convection and the most extreme rainfall rates. 

Abstract The relative importance of preconditioning moistening and global circumnavigating mode in the convective initiation of the October 2011 Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event observed during the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign is investigated using a series of convection‐permitting regional model simulations. It is demonstrated that the MJO convective initiation is largely controlled by the global circumnavigating mode at the intraseasonal scales. Rapid moistening closely related to this eastward propagating mode a few days prior to the MJO active phase is crucial to the initiation of deep convection and enhanced rainfall. This moistening process nevertheless cannot be accurately described by the “discharge‐recharge” hypothesis, which speculates the importance a gradual moisture buildup over an approximately 2‐week period leading to the arrival of the active MJO phase. 

The influence of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on the diurnal cycle of coastal rainfall over south China during the mei-yu (heavy rainfall) season is investigated using the OLR-based Madden–Julian oscillation index (OMI), satellite rainfall data, and atmospheric reanalysis. Results show that the mei-yu season coastal rainfall is enhanced during the BSISO phase 1 (convectively active phase over the western Indian Ocean), with 25% greater rainfall than the climatological regional mean. Rainfall is suppressed during the BSISO phases 4 and 5 (convectively active phase in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea), with negative rainfall anomalies of 39% and 46%, respectively. During phase 1, the rainfall enhancement is mostly over the inland region during the afternoon, while there is little diurnal variability of the rainfall anomaly offshore. During phases 4 and 5, the rainfall suppression is considerably stronger over the offshore region in the morning, whereas stronger rainfall suppression occurs inland during the afternoon. In phase 8, positive rainfall anomalies are found over the offshore region with a peak from the morning to the early afternoon, whereas negative rainfall anomalies are found over the inland region with the strongest suppression in the late afternoon. Analysis of phase composites and horizontal moisture advection shows that the diurnal variation of rainfall anomalies over the south China coastal area during different BSISO phases can be interpreted as the interaction between the large-scale anomalous moisture advection and the local land and sea breeze circulations.